Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
