Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
